Skip to content

Add quantified economic adoption thresholds from fork simulation study - #84

Open
pfoytik wants to merge 2 commits into
bitcoin-cap:mainfrom
pfoytik:contrib/econ-adoption-thresholds
Open

Add quantified economic adoption thresholds from fork simulation study#84
pfoytik wants to merge 2 commits into
bitcoin-cap:mainfrom
pfoytik:contrib/econ-adoption-thresholds

Conversation

@pfoytik

@pfoytik pfoytik commented Aug 17, 2026

Copy link
Copy Markdown

Related to #83

Adds a short paragraph and footnote to "Impact of Economic Node adoption rates on chain split risks," putting explicit numbers on the section's existing low/medium/high adoption framing:

  • E < 0.50: cascade floor, new rules can't win regardless of miner commitment
  • E ∈ [0.50, 0.82]: inversion zone, miner commitment becomes the deciding variable
  • E > 0.82: economic override, new rules win regardless of miner commitment
  • E ≈ 0.74: self-sustaining point within the inversion zone, where the price signal stops depending on continued miner cooperation

These come from a 2026 simulation study of a hypothetical contested Bitcoin soft fork (arXiv:2608.05461, cited in the new footnote), not from Bitcoin's actual history. The footnote says so explicitly, this is offered as a mental model for exploring the dynamic BCAP already describes qualitatively, not a claim about validated real-world thresholds.

This is item 1 of the roadmap from #83, a self-contained two-line addition to existing prose, not a restructure. No other files need changes (index.html fetches README.md live, and bcap_v1.0.pdf is a separately-built artifact outside this PR's scope).

Open to adjusting wording, threshold representation, or hedging language based on feedback.

Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment

Labels

None yet

Projects

None yet

Development

Successfully merging this pull request may close these issues.

1 participant